APAC Morning Update - 27/01/21

The NZD opens at 0.7238 and the AUD opens at 0.7746

 
Risk is back on, but supposedly, when has it been off? What even is risk if the market only ever goes up? The IMF are out with their forecast for global growth forecast for 2021, and have projected it at 5.5%, a jump from 5.2%. Some of this is a bounce back from a poor showing in 2020, for obvious reasons, but even so, it would be a pretty solid result. From the depths of the selloff back in March 2020, to have the world growing at over 5% would be a result many would be very happy about, and indeed not many would have picked. The wider question is, when Central Banks of the world were in the depths of the selloff and running their 2021 forecasts, what growth rates did they use? If it was significantly lower than 5%, then clearly this could justify low rates, money printing etc. Now that it is above 5%, can they still justify the low rates, and indeed even talk of cutting again?

Remember, the last time global GDP growth was about 5.5% was 1973.

 
Global equity markets are mixed: Dow +0.2%, S&P 500 +0.1%, FTSE +0.2%, DAX +1.7%, CAC +0.9%, Nikkei -1.0%, Shanghai -1.5%.

Gold prices are up -0.3%, currently trading at $1,850 an ounce. WTI Crude Oil prices are
up 0.2% trading at $52.7 a barrel. 


NZDUSD 0.7238 0.6%
NZDEUR 0.5952 0.4%
NZDGBP 0.5272 0.2%
NZDJPY 75.04 0.5%
NZDAUD 0.9345 0.1%
NZDCAD 0.9191 0.3%
GBPNZD 1.8966 -0.1%

AUDUSD 0.7746 0.4%
AUDEUR 0.6369 0.3%
AUDGBP 0.5641 0.0%
AUDJPY 80.30 0.3%
AUDNZD 1.0699 -0.1%
GBPAUD 1.7726 0.0%